Earnings Date: July 18, 2025
Ticker: SAAB-B.ST (OMX Stockholm)
Focus Points: Order intake, margins, FX, defence spending, backlog strength
Why SAAB Matters Right Now
There’s something about SAAB that makes it stand out in 2025. With global defence budgets climbing and Sweden’s NATO accession still fresh in memory, investors and traders are paying close attention to the country’s flagship defence and aerospace company.
The big question heading into Q2: can SAAB keep pace with growing expectations — or has the stock already priced in the optimism?
From Gripen fighter jets to radar systems and naval tech, SAAB is exposed to the full spectrum of modern defence trends. But rising demand doesn’t automatically mean rising profits. That’s why traders are dissecting every line of this quarter’s report.
1. Order Intake & Backlog Strength: Still Rising?
In Q1, SAAB posted a 17% year-on-year increase in order intake — and that momentum will be closely watched in Q2. Analysts are expecting further growth in backlog and possibly new wins in Eastern Europe and the Nordics. With NATO integration accelerating, SAAB’s role as a preferred supplier for command, control, and surveillance systems could deepen.
Trader Insight : A blowout order intake could trigger strong sentiment — especially if international demand outpaces Swedish procurement.
2. Margins & Cost Control: Will Profitability Keep Up?
Revenue is one thing. Margins are another.
Investors are keeping a close eye on gross and EBIT margins, especially as supply chains normalize and cost pressures ease slightly. In Q1, SAAB reported an operating margin of 8.3% — modest by sector standards, but stable. Q2 will show whether those margins are expanding or stagnating.
Risks to margins include:
- Higher personnel costs
- Input price stickiness in key materials
- Delivery lags on multi-year projects
CFD Angle : Traders may react strongly if there’s a margin beat — or a miss — as that affects short-term pricing far more than top-line growth.
3. FX Tailwinds or Headwinds? Watch USD/SEK
SAAB earns a significant portion of its revenue outside Sweden, especially in USD and EUR contracts. That makes FX movements a key variable this quarter.
The Swedish krona (SEK) has been relatively weak in recent weeks, with USD/SEK hovering around 10.10. This often helps SAAB’s revenue in local terms, but hedging strategies could limit the benefit.
Key Watch : If management upgrades guidance due to FX, it may signal stronger H2 performance.
4. What Analysts Expect
Most analysts are cautiously optimistic heading into the Q2 report:
- Sales growth estimates: ~6–8% YoY
- EBIT growth: Likely to remain in single digits unless cost efficiencies surprise
- EPS: Moderate improvement expected, driven by top-line expansion and stable SG&A
Carnegie and SEB recently reiterated Buy ratings but warned of “valuation headroom” being limited unless new multi-billion SEK orders materialize.
5. What Will Move the Stock?
Let’s face it — SAAB isn’t just about fundamentals. Momentum, sentiment, and geopolitical headlines can move it just as much as earnings. Still, here’s what traders should focus on:
| Catalyst | Why It Matters for Traders |
|---|---|
| Order Intake (SEK billions) | Signal of long-term visibility and global demand strength |
| EBIT Margin YoY Change | Cost control and pricing power under scrutiny |
| FX Commentary | FX gains/losses may drive earnings swings |
| Guidance Revisions | Upgrades signal confidence — downgrades hit sentiment |
| Backlog Book-to-Bill Ratio | Strong book-to-bill = growth visibility |
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Final Take: All Eyes on Execution
For traders, SAAB’s Q2 report is less about surprises and more about execution. If the company can keep the backlog strong, nudge margins higher, and guide confidently into H2 — sentiment will likely remain bullish. But any signs of cost creep, soft order flow, or FX impact reversals? That could shift positioning quickly.
This is where precision matters — both for SAAB and for the traders watching it.
